Each side in the debate used the result to legitimize its position. Madrid pointed out that an illegal, non-binding referendum in which only a little over one third of the electorate went to the polls is far from legitimate. Prime Minister Rajoy labeled the process a “profound failure” and remarked that “the great majority of Catalans have refused to back this undertaking”.
Catalan President Artur Mas, unsurprisingly, spun it the other way, declaring the referendum a “great success.” He threw down the gauntlet to the central government, stating, “We have earned the right to a referendum. Once again Catalonia has shown that it wants to rule itself."
With the two parties still at loggerheads, issuing statements similar to those before the consultation, circumstances are seemingly unchanged. But despite the fact that the consultation was unsanctioned and non-binding, it might have succeeded in putting more wind in the sails of the secessionist cause. Rajoy may find that it is nearly impossible to put the Catalan genie back in the bottle, with the nationalist momentum toward holding a proper referendum proving unstoppable.
Mas was somewhat forced to hold the November 9th consultation after promising a referendum. If he had failed to do so, he would have been seen as cowering to Madrid. His political support would have likely dropped considerably. He does not lose anything by holding an unofficial consultation; if anything, he has only whet the appetite of Catalans for a future poll on independence.
Having recently returned from a visit to Catalonia, the author can attest to a palpable rise in nationalist sentiment. It is hard to miss. Numerous apartment blocks on the streets of Barcelona and Girona are draped with Catalan flags and separatist banners – slogans such as “the time is now” and “Catalonia: the next state in Europe” indicate the high level of angst felt by many in the region.
After being riled up amidst the wrangling between Madrid and Barcelona in the run-up to the November 9th consultation, separatists seem adamant about continuing the struggle until the central government grants them a binding vote on independence. Against this backdrop, much like the British government did with Scotland, the Spanish government may ultimately have to give in and grant a vote.
Rajoy, however, has shown no signs of softening his stance against such a referendum. It is very unlikely that he gives any ground before Spanish parliamentary elections take place next year. On his side, he has the constitution, which would have to be changed to allow an independence vote in Catalonia. In 2008, Madrid denied a similar request by the Basque Country, another Spanish province home to a simmering secessionist movement, by again resorting to the Constitutional Court. But judging on past experiences between central governments and other secessionist movements elsewhere – in Quebec and Scotland, to name a few – Madrid may only be able to hold on for so long before the pressure of being perceived as belligerent and anti-democratic proves too much to bear.
Meanwhile in Catalonia, Mas has doubled down on independence, recently laying out a plan for achieving sovereignty by 2016. He is still angling for other pro-independence politicians to campaign with him in upcoming regional elections in an effort to obtain a strong mandate to break away from Spain. But rivals from the leftist, pro-independence Esquerra Republicana Party (ERC) – likely sensing a bout of political opportunism on the part of Mas and his party – have thus far refused to sign up to such a joint electoral list. A recent poll appearing in the El Mundo newspaper puts Mas’ Convergencia i Unio (CIU) party and the ERC neck and neck, receiving 23.8% and 22.1% support, respectively.
With both sides sticking to their guns, a negotiated resolution appears quite unlikely. In Britain, the central government worked with the Scots to organize a referendum and the main political parties, prior to the referendum, devised proposals for more autonomy to Scotland in order to provide an alternative to full independence. This is not in the case in Spain, where there is currently no plan for an official referendum or greater sovereignty. And in contrast to a few years ago, enhanced devolution – with the carrot of granting Catalonia greater control over its tax receipts – is probably no longer enough to placate nationalists, who now seem solely fixated on independence.
Talks between Rajoy and Mas have all but broken down, with both sides accusing the other of not wanting to sit down and negotiate. In a recent speech to the party faithful in Barcelona, Rajoy used the opportunity to reiterate his aversion to talks of a referendum, declaring, “I have never negotiated, and neither will I, about Spaniards’ equality, neither on their right to decide what their country should be,” before adding, “We have always supported dialogue within the law.” Meanwhile, Mas has called for “more politics, less courts,” daring Rajoy to engage on the topic.
Elections, both nation-wide and in Catalonia, in the next year may significantly affect the trajectory of this tussle. If the separatists win handily in Catalan regional elections, they will be in a strong position to lobby Madrid for a referendum. If not, the movement may fizzle a bit. At the same time, if national elections eject Rajoy and his conservative Popular Party in favor of the opposition Socialists and/or the upstart Podemos Party, who are both less hardline on the issue, it may create space for talks. Something has to give; a turbulent road lies ahead.
Views expressed here are those of Ryan Barnes and do not represent the views of the U.S. government.