European Institute

Greece’s obligation to set up five identification and registration centers, the so-called hotspots, for migrants and refugees arriving from Turkey, is mostly fulfilled. Four out of five hotspots, more precisely the ones on the islands of Lesvos, Leros, Samos and Chios, are fully operational. The Greek defense minister Panos Kamenos made clear that the fifth hotspot on the island of Kos, still not ready today, will also be operational by the end of the month.

Through the past year, German Chancellor Merkel and President Obama – architects of the West’s responses in Ukraine -- were united in choosing to see Putin’s actions as less threatening, his ambitions less expansive.  That was the bedrock of their partnership on the issue.  Ukraine was a discrete problem, of no more than regional significance, amenable to a political settlement, not to be escalated. 

But Europe finds itself now facing a potential confrontation so freighted with risk that NATO’s deputy military commander warned two weeks ago that “the threat from Russia, together with the risk it brings of miscalculation resulting in a slide into strategic conflict, however remote we see that as being right now, represents an obvious existential threat to our whole being…”

The new Greek political leadership is learning how painful it is to transition from a populist political campaign platform to the actual job of governing a country in the euro area. Only days after promising voters a clean break with the recent past, the illusion that Greece could regain full sovereignty within the monetary union is already being replaced by a well-known pattern of jockeying for a better negotiating position. For the moment, Alexis Tsipras, the new prime minister, does not appear to have a coherent plan.

Viewed by America’s allies in Europe and Asia, the opening round of discussion of international security threats among 2016 presidential wannabes must rank somewhere between unserious and scary. One would hardly know, listening to the candidates’ major pronouncements, that the next president will face stern challenges from most points of the compass, just as Barack Obama does.

When you go to the web address of Turkey's -once- largest newspaper Zaman, an error message pops up frequently: "404. Page not Found! We're sorry, but we can't find the page you were looking for." The automated message is more about a serious failure in Turkish democracy than merely a technical glitch: Turkey's largest independent newspaper was brutally taken over by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 4th and turned into a mouthpiece for him. Zaman's government-regulated new webpage gives errors, because many links from the original version are missing, and it is a work in progress. The progress in Turkey, however, does not seem to be towards a viable member of the European Union. Given the lack of meaningful pressure in response to this authoritarian turn, 404 Error can also apply to EU: Europe not Found!

More than two decades ago, President George H. W. Bush set forth what quickly became a new grand strategy for the post-Cold War era: to create “a Europe whole and free” and at peace. With Russia’s seizure of Crimea and its new challenges to the integrity of Ukraine and potentially of other Central European states, the Bush vision has clearly gone off the rails.

As mayor of Istanbul in 1996, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "Democracy is like a streetcar. We ride it as long as we can, and then get off.” Apparently, twenty years later, Turkey’s President stays true to his word. Having skillfully used democratic mechanisms to come close to his final destination, which is absolute power, he now appears ready to get off the streetcar, as evidenced by Turkey’s autocratic trajectory, especially in the last few years.

Russia went to war with Georgia in 2008, in a manner that, at least with the benefit of hindsight, appeared a trial run for this year’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Russia has stirred trouble in Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and as far as the Baltic States, while bankrolling right-wing extremist parties in European Union countries. It is remarkable, however, that after the 2008 war, Georgia seemed off the target list.

The Greek government borrowed on the international bond market last week, the first time in over four years.^[1] The bond issue comes just five years after Greece’s severe economic and financial crisis had become an existential threat to the euro itself. The fact that Greece was able to borrow €3 billion for five years at 4.75%, with orders totaling €20 billion from a horde of yield-hungry investors, on Thursday, April 10, signaled Greece’s emergence from financial quarantine. A day later, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Athens to assure Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras that Germany would continue to support his government’s painful and ongoing structural reforms.

America now seems increasingly uneasy with its role of global savior of first resort. And Europeans wonder what a more isolationist U.S. means for them.

In a recent address to scores of enthusiastic fans at his huge palace in Ankara, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared himself ‘shepherd’ of the nation, citing in Arabic from the Prophet of Islam. For Erdogan’s ardent supporters, Turkey is a rising Muslim powerhouse under his strong leadership. Ankara’s traditional alliance with the West is only an impediment to Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman expansionism abroad and sultan-type dominance at home.

More than 800,000 desperate souls, in 2015 alone, have risked their lives trying to reach Greece from Turkey and trying to stem this flow has very much been Greece’s ‘mission impossible’.

Erecting fences or walls is obviously not an option.

Most importantly, using Greece as a scapegoat for the refugee crisis makes no sense and represents an unjust blame game.

Who knew that the monumental Christmas tree glittering in front of Notre Dame of Paris last winter was funded by the Embassy of Russia? This allowed the leading public television channel in Russia to say: “This year, Parisians do not have enough money any more for their Christmas tree.” In spite of increasing Russian presence on the banks of the Seine, almost nobody in Paris heard about it.

Poland—The Next EU crisis? The Good News: This time it's not about money.

There is reason to be cautious when judging current events in Poland. And observers are well advised not to automatically use heavy artillery when criticizing the new right-wing government in Warsaw. Why? Because Poland stands for nothing less than the biggest success story to date in Eastern Europe. Poland, a country once notorious for inflation, strikes and government turmoil, has orchestrated, in the past 26 years, a remarkable political and economic turnaround. Poland was the first Eastern country to rid itself of communism and then consequently followed a clear-cut path of integration into Western structures like NATO and EU. This happened to a large extent during the ten years of the presidency of Alexander Kwasniewski, a former minister in a communist cabinet.  Poland deserves credit and recognition for those achievements.

Who is Vladimir Putin,  and why does he behave the way he does?  Much has been written,  but little has been revealed. It has been said that Putin represents a return to Bolshevik rule.  But what does this mean?  Part of the answer may be found in “The Bolshevik Code,” the operational value system of the Soviet leadership before the fall of communism in 1991.    Putin is a 21st Century incarnation  of The Bolshevik Code,  and his conduct is better understood with reference to this Code.

The Spanish political system has been turned upside down. The bipolar political stranglehold of the center-left Socialists (PSOE) and center-right Popular Party (PP), who have alternated in power for most of the post-Franco democratic era in Spain, has eased. Upstarts from the both the right and left, Ciudadanos and Podemos, respectively, have crashed the party. Add a resurgent Catalan independence movement to the mix and politics in Spain have never been as turbulent and unpredictable. The December 20th elections, which were supposed to provide some clarity, have created an even more uncertain political landscape.

Even Donald Trump seemed sobered by the overnight verdict of the British people when the Republican presidential contender flew into Scotland to count his golf courses on Friday and spoke blandly and in relatively measured tones to the media at Turnberry. "Basically they took back their country."

A week after Donald Trump’s upset victory, U.S. President Barack Obama is traveling to Greece, in the first stop of his last European trip of his Presidency. During his largely symbolic visit, President Obama is planning to deliver a legacy speech from the birthplace of democracy. He is expected to make an impassioned case for the merits of democracy, European unity and security, and regional stability; at a time when all three are being tested by the rise of extremist parties and rhetoric. Although he is expected to repeat these themes during his second stop in Germany, given that Greece is faced with the extra challenges of a debilitating economic crisis and an historic influx of migrants and refugees, President Obama’s stop in Athens is a particularly welcome sign of support to the country. 

At its June summit, the European Council agreed to further strengthen EU security and defense. In what European Council President Donald Tusk called a “historic step”, member states agreed to move forward with the proposed European Defense Fund and activate the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) mechanism. With Brexit negotiations underway, the agreement came without the UK, which has consistently opposed increased EU defense integration. Additionally, member states also agreed to revisit the funding of the EU battlegroups to facilitate their future deployment. This ambitious goal coincides with conclusions adopted by the Council in May to “reinforc[e] military rapid response” by restructuring the EU battlegroups.