European Institute

Given continental Europe’s bloody history, the Slovak capital of Bratislava is as symbolic city as any to host an informal unity summit of embattled European Union leaders. Besieged and conquered, occupied and liberated down the centuries, multi-ethnic Bratislava finally broke its uneasy marriage with Czechoslovakia in the post-communist “Velvet Divorce” of 1993. Regaining a status it previously enjoyed for 250 years as capital of Hungary, the city was known as Pressburg until 1919, when there was briefly talk of renaming it Wilsonstadt after the peacemaking US president. Nazi and Soviet conquerors who arrived later would not have liked that.

Conscientious Americans, eager to be distracted from President Trump’s latest diplomatic salvo, his threat to “solve North Korea” unilaterally if China doesn’t sort it out, may take comfort from a Ruritanian version of sabre rattling diplomacy which vied for European headlines as the week began. Another Falklands war!  Another Spanish Armada!  Like much else, the Gibraltar question would be funny if it wasn’t serious.

In a sea of academic gowns on Harvard Lawn, he stood out, erect of military bearing, in a civilian gray suit. 

George C. Marshall was one of four illustrious honorary degree recipients on June 5, 1947.  He had been the military and logistics architect of the allied victories in World War II and was now serving as Secretary of State for President Harry S Truman. The others were Robert Oppenheimer, creator of the atomic bomb; General Omar Bradley and poet T.S. Eliot. But it would be Marshall’s brief speech at an alumni lunch following the commencement ceremonies that would make history. 

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a tall order for his first trip to Washington: To instill an image that he is a respected world leader despite his authoritarianism; to foster a personal relationship with the new US President Donald Trump, and hopefully, garner a few concessions on several contentious issues which have been straining bilateral relations. Those issues include the US decision to arm Kurdish fighters in Syria for anti-ISIL Raqqa operation, obstacles in the extradition request for prominent Turkish dissident Fethullah Gulen, and Erdogan’s keen interest in shutting down the U.S. government’s Iran sanctions violation case against Turkish-Iranian businessman Reza Zarrab. Turkey’s strongman can be happy with the warm welcome by President Trump at the White House, but so far there has been no indications of any concrete accomplishments on these priority issues. 

At last week’s NATO summit in South Wales, there was a most prominent “absent guest” who could have been called to by any of the Western leaders, but especially by U.S. President Barack Obama:

Avaunt! and quit my sight! let the earth hide thee!
Thy bones are marrowless, thy blood is cold;
Thou hast no speculation in those eyes
Which thou dost glare with!

But unlike the terror he felt in face of Banquo’s ghost, Macbeth declared himself able to deal with “…the rugged Russian bear…” (or also, stated here for the record, “… th' Hyrcan [Iranian] tiger…”)

Brexit, the wholly unpredicted vote of the British electorate to leave the European Union, faces Europe with its greatest political challenge in half a century. Less headlined is that Europe looks to be facing the biggest threat to its security over a like period. The NATO summit opening tomorrow (July 8) will be dominated by a single topic: how to defend the alliance’s Baltic members against Russian attack. The gathering in Warsaw will be the most consequential for NATO since the ending of the Cold War.

When the leaders of the North Atlantic alliance wrapped up their Chicago summit two years ago and started preparing for their 65th anniversary meeting in 2014, they could have asked John Travolta to provide the soundtrack, "Stayin' Alive."

The press and the public were almost breathless in describing her: “a Goblin under Google’s bed;” “the enforcer;” “a very steely character;” “a tough cookie;” and “Queen Margrethe III” – all descriptions of a 47-year-old Danish politician who has suddenly become the most talked about official in the normally staid European Union bureaucracy.

In three short weeks this spring, Margrethe Vestager, the European antitrust chief, came out swinging, announcing the European Union’s intention, after years of investigation, to call to account some of the wealthiest, most heavily muscled corporations on the face of the earth –many of them American. If it wasn’t quite a match between The Amazon vs. Goliath, it was a reminder that international political power can still challenge multinational economic power in a titanic battle over the rules of the capitalist game.

If one reviews European history over the period since the Reformation five hundred years ago, the role that England has sought to play in Europe has been that of holding the balance between contending powers. It used its naval strength, and the overseas colonies its naval strength allowed it to hold, to exercise that balancing European role.

At no time in the last 500 years, did the UK seem to disengage from, or turn its back upon, continental Europe. Indeed England felt it so much a part of continental Europe that Henry VIII actually contemplated being a candidate for Holy Roman Emperor.

By Michael D. Mosettig, Former Foreign Editor of PBS News Hour

When first announced earlier this year, President Obama's trip to Europe, and especially his first ever stop over in Brussels, appeared to be more a mission of gestures than substance. Now, with the Russian annexation of Crimea, a courtesy call has become something of a crisis meeting with a suddenly crammed agenda.

Once again, the euro survived a crucial electoral test and strengthened in financial markets clearly relieved that the world’s second reserve currency will carry on despite populist politicians pandering to voters blaming economic stagnation and high unemployment on the European Union and the euro. The euro’s bounce against the dollar came just hours after the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday, April 23, resulted in Emmanuel Macron, a pro-European centrist; and Marine Le Pen, head of the hard right and anti-European Front National, winning through to the run-off vote on May 7.

Severe turmoil makes diplomats in Haiti fear violence from government goons called Ton Ton Macoutes. Chris Hill, age ten, realizes the danger when his parents show him how to aim the loaded pistol they keep at home. “Don’t use it unless you have to,” his mother says. He doesn’t have to. The State Department soon evacuates all diplomatic dependents. That was in 1963.

The recent spat between the U.S. administration and the UK government over the UK decision to join, over U.S. opposition, the Chinese led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as a founding member has triggered much public noise.

Initial reactions on the U.S. side went from surprise to outrage, with Washington accusing British cousins of jeopardizing the global order and the “special relationship,” in the name of short sighted commercial interests. U.S. officials conceded that the lack of progress in implementing the long overdue reform of the governance structure of the big Washington based international organizations, the World Bank and, primarily, the International Monetary Fund, had complicated matters. However, the reaction in Washington to London's decision to ignore U.S. concerns was one of ill concealed anger. When Germany, France and Italy chose to join ranks with the UK, the failure of the US approach, centered around a strategy of increasing containment, was complete.

Among the precepts Henry Kissinger plentifully permitted himself in his multi-volume memoirs were four which seem especially urgent now that President Obama is, step-by-slippery-slope, committing America’s military once more into the cauldron of Iraq.

Recently, Germany’s Minister of Justice, Heiko Maas, was asked how often he used Google to search the internet. His answer: “Everyday and in an exorbitant manner. Therefore, unfortunately, I am part of the problem.”

The way the Social Democrat described his digital behavior reflects the increasingly ambiguous relationship many Germans have with Google’s services ---whether it is the search engine, Googlemail, Googlemaps, Googletranslate or anything else Google. When looking something up on the internet 90 percent of Germans use Google – significantly more than the worldwide average of roughly 70 percent. The internet giant has not only become ubiquitous. Google has become inescapable.

Before British Prime Minister Theresa May called her snap and ill-advised election pro-European Brits had their work cut out fighting the dominant prevailing wisdom of the inexorability of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU – the so-called “Brexit”.

Late last year the Republic of Korea hosted the ITU’s Plenipotentiary Conference, commonly known as the Plenipot, in Busan, South Korea. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is an organ of the United Nations and meets every four years at a Plenipot to discuss any possible amendments to its foundational texts – its Constitution and Convention. Last month, The European Institute hosted a special program called The Busan Consensus: A Turning Point at which U.S. Ambassador Daniel Sepulveda, who led the U.S. delegation, gave the Korean hosts high praise for facilitating a successful outcome, from U.S. perspective, that emphasized private sector management of the Internet.

December also brought tidings of concern that North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic) may have arranged the hacking of Sony Pictures in retaliation for its planned release of the comedy on Kim Jong-un, The Interview. The two actions, from countries divided geographically only by the 38th Parallel, provides a dramatic contrast in approaches by governments on Internet policy. In late December, North Korea’s Internet nodes suffered from several days’ disruption.

Russia’s economy is cratering.  An SAS flight from Copenhagen to Poznan in Poland has suddenly to change course to avoid collision with a Russian surveillance aircraft roaming the crowded air-lanes of the southern Baltic with its identifying beacon switched off.  A flight from Finland had a similar near-miss two days earlier.  A third near-disaster came last spring, averted only by the skill of SAS pilots.  Tiny Lithuania (pop three million) is training and equipping 2,500 of its military of 8,000 as a ‘rapid-reaction force’ to respond swiftly to any incursion into its territory.

What connects these recent events?  Answer: Russia’s increasingly embattled President Vladimir Putin.